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See the chart above. SUMMARY May 2019: We see geopolitical risk as a material market factor in 2019, especially in an environment of slowing growth and elevated uncertainty about the economic and corporate earnings outlook. A zero score represents the average BGRI level over its history from 2003 up to that point in time. The BGRI’s risk scenario is for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect all possible outcomes as geopolitical risks are ever-evolving. Although this material is based upon information that BlackRock considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, BlackRock does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. BlackRock's latest geopolitical risk dashboard highlights the top risks to watch according to its latest BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI). As a proxy for this, we measure market attention to overall geopolitical risk using our global BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI) as a gauge. BlackRock shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how, or techniques provided by a website user to BlackRock through this Website. But, first of all, what is a geopolitical risk? Communications to BlackRock, particularly those containing confidential information, may be sent by mail to: BlackRock (Singapore) Limited, #18-01, Twenty Anson, 20 Anson Road, Singapore 079912 or by email to clientservice.asiapac@blackrock.com. Do you agree with Blackrock’s analysis? In Japan, this is issued by BlackRock Japan. BlackRock, a global investment management corporation, tracks market reports and financial news associated with geopolitical risks through its data project, Geopolitical Risk Dashboard. Market analysis Trade is a key geopolitical risk in 2018. Despite reticence in some countries around the impact of certain climate goals on key domestic industries, broad public support for environmental action will reduce the likelihood of intra-EU political frictions spilling over. This material may contain ’forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Januar 2018, 08:29 Richard Turnill [BlackRock] Setting the scene. When you’re managing that much money, there’s an expectation from your clients that every conceivable tool is made available to your portfolio managers so that they can … Conflict over the 2020 budget is unlikely, with a confrontational government in Italy and a more conciliatory Commission in place. 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We weigh recent readings more heavily in calculating the average. Internationally it poses increasing management challenges, particularly at board level. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. In Italy, we worried that the formation of a left-right populist government opened up a path toward full or partial breakup of the eurozone. To the fullest extent permissible pursuant to applicable law, BlackRock disclaims all warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranty of non-infringement of third-party rights and any implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. The marketâ s overall attention to global geopolitical risks sits at elevated levels, as proxied by our BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI). According to Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello, geopolitical risk … Welcome to the BlackRock site for Singapore: Before you proceed, please take a moment to review and accept the following Terms and Conditions. Notes: We identify specific words related to this geopolitical risk in general and to our top -10 risks. No information on this Website constitutes business, financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, regulatory, accounting or any other advice. If you are unsure about the meaning of any information provided, please consult your financial or other professional adviser. The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI) tracks the relative frequency of analyst reports and financial news stories associated with geopolitical risks. You must not redeliver any of the pages, text, images, or content of this Website using "framing" or similar technology. We then use text analysis to calculate the frequency of their appearance in the Refinitiv Broker Report and Dow Jones Global Newswire databases as well as on Twitter. The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator, for example, tracks the relative frequency of analyst reports and financial news stories associated with geopolitical risks. The information contained on this website (this “Website”) (including without limitation the information, functions and documents posted herein (together, the “Contents”) is made available for informational purposes only. The preceding Terms of use represent the entire agreement between BlackRock and the user relating to the subject matter herein. Climate policy will complicate relations with the U.S., however, as Europe will likely demand commitment to the Paris Accord as a part of any trade deal. BlackRock México Operadora, S.A. de C.V., Sociedad Operadora de Fondos de Inversión (“BlackRock México Operadora”) is a Mexican subsidiary of BlackRock, Inc., authorized by the CNBV as a Mutual Fund Manager (Operadora de Fondos), and as such, authorized to manage Mexican mutual funds, ETFs and provide Investment Advisory Services. Insurers view geopolitical risk and weak global economic growth as the most serious macro risks, while asset price volatility and liquidity risk are considered to be the major market risks. BlackRock makes no warranty to you regarding the security of the Website, including with regard to the ability of any unauthorized persons to access information received or transmitted by you through or from the Website. © 2020 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. All persons and entities accessing the Website do so on their own initiative and are responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The investments and strategies discussed in the Website may not be suitable for all investors and are not obligations of BlackRock or its affiliates or guaranteed by BlackRock or its affiliates. BlackRock's latest geopolitical risk dashboard highlights the top risks to watch according to its latest BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI). Chart of the week BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator-Global, 2005-2020 Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv. A sharp rise in the BGRI in 2018 preceded a steep decline in the growth of global trade. With four parties polling evenly, the outcome of an election is uncertain. Weak polling by both parties suggests they will stay together until 2022, when the next president is elected. In his latest article, Russ Koesterich discusses why volatility in financial markets has not been more severe, even though growth has softened. In CEE, we saw the rise of authoritarian governments leading to division within Europe over economic and foreign policy. The European economic and monetary union remains a half-built house – facing deep structural headwinds to growth and with both monetary and fiscal policies severely constrained. In Canada, this material is intended for permitted clients only. BlackRock’s global index for geopolitical risk is at a 15-year high on U.S.-China competition, Persian Gulf tensions, European fragmentation and South Asia tensions. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Statistics Netherlands and Refinitiv Datastream, October 2019. 17068311. Climate policy will complicate relations with the U.S., however, as Europe will likely demand commitment to the Paris Accord as a part of any trade deal. Risk assessment will be updated on a monthly basis, and the firm’s top 10 risks will be weighted accordingly, says a BlackRock release. 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We don’t see any of these issues as a serious challenge to European unity, but each has the potential to to escalate tensions with the U.S. The implementation of a carbon border tax would also create opposition in the U.S. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. 43288. In the event you choose not to do so, you should consider whether the Funds is suitable for you. Trademarks, Copyrights and other Intellectual Property. Users are advised to periodically review the contents of this Website to be familiar with any modifications. The material contained in this Website has not been reviewed by the MAS or any regulatory authority in Singapore. Faster-than-expected growth could prompt tax cuts, thereby boosting government popularity and growth further. The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator, for example, tracks the relative frequency of analyst reports and financial news stories associated with geopolitical risks. Any distribution, by whatever means, of this document and related material to persons other than those referred to above is strictly prohibited. We identify specific words related to geopolitical risk in general and to the top-10 risks including global trade. Copyright, trademark and other forms of proprietary rights protect the Contents of this Website. We outline below three policy areas in focus for Europe. The political situation in the UK remains in flux, yet recent developments have widened the distribution of possible outcomes. Our BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for a major cyber-attack(s) shows only modest market attention to this risk, implying that a cyber-attack could have an out-sized market impact. The material provides general information only and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, needs or circumstances. For Other APAC Countries, this material is issued for Institutional Investors only (or professional/sophisticated /qualified investors, as such term may apply in local jurisdictions) and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell in any securities, BlackRock funds or any investment strategy nor shall any securities be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. (BlackRock geopolitical risk indicators, or BGRIs) and judgment-based assessments of our top 10 risks. 10. We reserve the right to change, modify, add, or delete, any content and the terms of use of this Website without notice. Modification or use of the materials for any other purpose violates BlackRock's intellectual property rights. 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License No375, Association Memberships: Japan Investment Advisers Association, the Investment Trusts Association, Japan, Japan Securities Dealers Association, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.) In all scenarios, an election appears likely soon after Oct. 31. We use these techniques in managing our equity portfolios, looking at the perceived level of economic policy uncertainty across individual countries. Geopolitical risk dashboard Track our top geopolitical risks … Despite reticence in some countries around the impact of certain climate goals on key domestic industries, broad public support for environmental action will reduce the likelihood of intra-EU political frictions spilling over. BlackRock’s Geopolitical Risk Dashboard. BlackRock expressly disclaims all liability for errors and omissions in the materials on this Website and for the use or interpretation by others of information contained on the Website. (Getty Images, royalty free) If any provision of these Terms is deemed unlawful, void, or for any reason unenforceable, then that provision will be deemed severable from these Terms and will not affect the validity and enforceability of the remaining provisions. A lot of the work that has been done in text mining has historically focused on the English language, but it is broadening to other languages like Chinese. You acknowledge that you have no right to use the content of this Website in any other manner. Important information about the Funds is contained in the prospectus for the Funds which is available upon request from BlackRock. China is an important part of EM growth dynamics. Predictably, BlackRock reacted negatively to the AMLO victory, stating in a “geopolitical risk” report that “deterioration in Mexico’s economic policy” could ensue from it. The Geopolitical Risk Dashboard was created for institutional investors and is utilized by BlackRock’s portfolio managers and the firm’s institutional clients, according to a spokeswoman. At the time of writing, parties have resumed intense negotiations for a deal. At the time of writing, parties have resumed intense negotiations for a deal. Proposals linking EU funding to performance on rule of law will likely generate opposition among CEE governments. This Website is owned by Blackrock (Singapore) Limited (company registration number 200010143N), which is licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore ("MAS") pursuant to the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. Our BlackRock geopolitical risk dashboard helps track geopolitical risks and their potential market impact. The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator, for example, tracks the relative frequency of analyst reports and financial news stories associated with geopolitical risks. The existence of any such links shall not constitute an endorsement of, or representation or warranty by BlackRock regarding such websites, the contents of the websites, the products or services of the websites or the operators of the websites. Our global BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI) has ticked up from 11-month lows, indicating the market’s attention to geopolitical risk has picked up. iShares offers bond ETFs, which generally carry a low degree of risk but offer steady income. What makes Asian High Yield so attractive? This type of analysis is reflected in the BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator, which tracks 10 key geopolitical risk scenarios and their potential market impact. Each investment product and service referred to on this Website is intended to be made available only to residents in Singapore. The U.S.-China trade conflict – 2019’s dominant geopolitical risk – has paused, yet we expect enduring strategic rivalry between the two countries. 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Market attention to European fragmentation has declined from its May peak, as acute risks to European integration—beyond Brexit—have subsided.